EvoDefence

Strategic research and advisory

Strategic clarity for contested systems.

EvoDefence helps senior teams make better decisions about dual-use infrastructure, escalation dynamics, and emerging defence technology in open-source, unclassified contexts.

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Forthcoming book Swarm Potomac Books · January 2027 Live research tool SwarmWatch Megaconstellation tracking In development GreyZone / Orbit Watch Research infrastructure concepts

Purpose

What EvoDefence does.

EvoDefence provides strategic decision support and geopolitical research at the intersection of space, cyber, AI, and defence. The work is designed for leaders who already have capable technical teams, but need sharper framing of risk, incentives, signalling, and second-order effects.

This is not a managed security service, generic consultancy, or alarmist intelligence feed. Engagements are small, focused, and centred on decisions that need clarity without pretending uncertainty has disappeared.

Who it is for

Who it helps.

Boards and investors

Briefings that make exposure, dependencies, and decision trade-offs legible without overstatement.

Founders and operators

Support for defence-adjacent positioning, partner narratives, and credible risk communication.

Policy and risk teams

Open-source research that connects technical systems to escalation dynamics and incentives.

Where we help

Where we help.

01

Dual-use exposure

Understanding how space-enabled connectivity, imagery, timing, cloud services, and AI infrastructure look in contested environments.

02

Escalation risk

Assessing how actions, outages, interference, or misattribution may be interpreted by different actors under pressure.

03

Board clarity

Preparing senior conversations about geopolitical and defence-linked risk with evidence, restraint, and decision relevance.

04

Strategic positioning

Helping organisations sell, partner, or communicate in defence-adjacent ecosystems without buzzwords or fragile claims.

How to engage

Ways to engage.

Working method

How the work runs.

  1. Define the decision Clarify the question, time horizon, constraints, and audience.
  2. Map the system Surface dependencies, actors, incentives, and plausible failure modes.
  3. Apply strategic logic Assess signalling, escalation, attribution, second-order effects, and uncertainty.
  4. Deliver the output Provide a briefing, memo, research note, or agreed artefact with explicit next steps.

Research Lab

Research in development.

EvoDefence develops research infrastructure from the same analytical foundation as its advisory work. These projects explore how open-source data, structured incident tracking, and strategic analysis could support future decision-making. Some are live research tools; others are prototypes or ideas under development.

Live research tool

SwarmWatch

Tracks satellite megaconstellation growth, deployment rates, operator breakdowns, and orbital shell distribution.

Visit SwarmWatch

Prototype concept

GreyZone Watch

A developing framework for structuring open-source grey-zone incidents with attention to attribution uncertainty and escalation signals.

Preview concept

Idea in development

Orbit Watch

An emerging idea for tracking hostile or ambiguous space-security activity as structured research infrastructure rather than a finished product.

Discuss the idea

Research notes

Research notes.

Briefing paper The Race to Orbit

Compute constellations, strategic dependency, and the new high ground.

 Research note Mega-Constellation Vulnerabilities

Cyber-physical threats to dual-use space infrastructure.

 Public blog Public-facing writing

Commentary on space security, geopolitics, AI, and emerging defence technology.

Contact

Start with the decision.

A brief outline is enough: context, decision, constraints, intended audience, and ideal timeline.

  • UK-based, international in scope
  • Open-source and unclassified by default
  • Small engagements, high signal
  • Confidentiality by default