Dual-use exposure
You rely on space-enabled connectivity, imagery, timing, or cloud-delivered services and need a clear view of how those dependencies look in a contested environment.
Strategic analysis and research
Independent geopolitical and security research.
Open-source strategic analysis of deterrence, escalation dynamics, and emerging risk shaped by space, cyber, AI, and emerging defence technologies.
EvoDefence supports leaders who need clear, open-source framing of how dual-use infrastructure and contested systems shape organisational exposure, stakeholder expectations, and strategic risk, especially when decisions must be made quickly.
What EvoDefence is
EvoDefence provides strategic decision support and geopolitical research at the intersection of space, cyber, and defence. The work is designed for leaders who already have capable technical teams, but need better strategic framing of risk, signalling, and second-order effects. This work is delivered in open-source, unclassified contexts and is designed to complement operational and classified expertise.
This is not a managed security service. It is not a generic consultancy. Engagements are small, focused, and centred on judgement under uncertainty, particularly where dual-use systems blur intent and escalate misunderstanding.
Where we help
Typical situations where EvoDefence is useful.
Escalation risk
You need to understand how actions and disruptions may be interpreted by different actors, and where friction, interference, or misattribution can create avoidable escalation pressure.
Board and investor clarity
You are preparing leadership conversations about geopolitical and defence-linked risk, and want a disciplined, non-alarmist framing grounded in dependencies, failure modes, and incentives.
Strategic positioning
You sell or partner into government, primes, or defence-adjacent ecosystems and need narrative and strategy that avoids buzzwords and survives scrutiny.
How to engage
Engagements are deliberately scoped and decision-led. Start small and earn trust.
1. Strategic briefing
Best starting point
A 45 to 60 minute executive briefing tailored to a specific decision, programme, or scenario. Delivered live, with a short written summary, key assumptions, and practical next steps.
- Leadership teams, product leaders, policy stakeholders
- Clear decision framing and trade-offs
- Optional follow-on Q&A session
2. Commissioned analysis
When clarity is needed in writing
Concise analysis designed to inform decisions rather than to fill pages. Suitable for boards, investors, and senior stakeholders, with sources cited where appropriate.
- Decision memos and briefing notes
- Risk framing and options analysis
- Evidence-led and citation-ready
3. Applied research and paper production
Decision-oriented research
Commissioned research and structured writing designed to support strategy, senior stakeholder engagement, geopolitical research, or policy-facing work.
- Background research for boards and investors
- Geopolitical research notes and briefs
- Scenario development and comparative analysis
- Publication-ready drafts where appropriate
Research is conducted in open-source, unclassified contexts and complements internal or specialist expertise.
4. Advisory support
Selective and bounded
Ongoing strategic input for a small number of organisations. Structured around planning cycles or material changes rather than open-ended retainers.
- Programme sense-making and decision preparation
- Support for senior stakeholder conversations
- Clear scope and defined outputs
How we work
Step 1: Define the decision
We start with the decision you are facing, the time horizon, and the constraints. The goal is to avoid analysis that feels impressive but changes nothing.
Step 2: Clarify the system
We map the relevant architecture and dependencies, including commercial and operational realities. Space systems are treated as infrastructure, not novelty.
Step 3: Apply strategic logic
Escalation dynamics, signalling, incentives, and second-order effects are assessed alongside technical exposure. Uncertainty is surfaced, not hidden.
Step 4: Deliver the decision output
You receive a concise output: briefing summary, memo, or agreed artefact. Next steps are explicit, including what not to do.
Working boundary: EvoDefence operates exclusively in open-source, unclassified contexts. Where specialist operational or classified insight is required, this work is intended to complement it rather than replace it.
Live projects
Independent platforms developed from the same analytical foundation as EvoDefence's advisory work. Each tracks a different layer of the emerging security environment.
SwarmWatch
LiveA live data platform tracking the growth of satellite megaconstellations and orbital congestion. SwarmWatch visualises deployment rates, operator breakdowns, and orbital shell distribution across active and planned constellations, the infrastructure layer underpinning much of EvoDefence's space research.
GreyZone Watch
In developmentA live intelligence map tracking hybrid and grey zone operations across Europe: GNSS jamming, undersea cable interference, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and state-linked influence operations. Below the threshold of war. Above the threshold of noise.
Research notes
Ongoing research themes developed from open-source analysis. For published analysis and commentary, see jayallen.pro.
Mega-Constellation Vulnerabilities: Cyber-Physical Threats to Dual-Use Space Infrastructure
Three interacting categories of risk — network cascade effects, supply chain compromise, and command and control authentication failures — examined through the lens of the Starlink deployment in Ukraine and the governance frameworks attempting to keep pace.
Published July 2025 · Space security · Cyber-physical · Governance
AI-enabled early warning and strategic stability
How automation alters tempo, error propagation, and crisis decision-making, even in the absence of hostile intent.
Status: In preparation
Grey zone operations and the attribution problem
Why the space and cyber domains complicate established frameworks for assigning responsibility, and what that means for deterrence.
Status: In preparation
Recent writing — jayallen.pro ↗
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Writing covers space security, geopolitics, AI, and emerging defence technology from a UK and European perspective. See all posts ↗
Research notes and external writing are intended to support strategic discussion rather than advocate specific policy positions.
Contact
A brief outline is sufficient: context, the decision you are facing, key constraints, and your ideal timeline.